Scenes from SuperReturn

Scenes from SuperReturn

Cleaning out the notebook from last week's SuperReturn conference in Berlin...

1. Lack of DPI was the most common topic of conversation, even as the SpaceX IPO provided some relief.

  • PE exits in Q1 2026 hit a decade-long low mark, and are accruing to a smaller number of funds, per Pitchbook.
  • That has large firms eyeing mid-market deals, and others foraying into venture capital — all hoping the ROI is greener.

    • 2. There were many gripes expressed about "excessive" number-fluffing via moves like EBITDA adjustments.

  • Removing restructuring costs from earnings calculations can boost the value of the company, but when written into loan agreements, it can leave lenders with a smaller equity cushion.
  • One session focused on fund performance was cheekily named: "Aren't they all a bit top quartile?"

    • 3. There's more pain to come for software companies, but most investors think the next failures will be less dramatic than the Medallia restructuring.

  • Firms are hiring AI consultants to help upgrade software portfolio companies, and building in-house capabilities.
  • They're also hoping long enterprise sales cycles provide some cushion, while acknowledging continued uncertainty.

    • 4. Energy bulls emerged, with several LPs wanting more sector exposure, even as some investors questioned data center valuations.

    The bottom line: Investors spent a lot of time trying to calm LPs, but it's clear the future is hazy.