Fed's Warsh, jobs report, and more econ data on tap this week

Fed's Warsh, jobs report, and more econ data on tap this week

A wave of data this week will give us our first indicators of how the U.S. economy held up in June. Top policymakers convene in Portugal for the world's most-scrutinized central banking conference, second to the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium in late August.

Driving the news: The European Central Bank's annual forum in Sintra, a picturesque ancient town outside Lisbon, convenes Monday and runs through Wednesday.

  • ECB president Christine Lagarde delivers an introductory speech Monday evening (local time). Wednesday at 2pm local time (9am ET), Lagarde and Fed chairman Kevin Warsh appear on a policy panel alongside Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem.
  • We'll be particularly watching to see if Warsh offers more clarity than he did in his mid-June news conference on whether U.S. rate increases are on the way.
  • Zoom out: The central banking world's goings-on take place against a backdrop of employment data that should offer greater visibility into this spring's apparent firming of the U.S. labor market.

  • On Tuesday morning, the Labor Department will release May data on job openings and labor turnover that will show the internal dynamics of what was a solid month for payrolls growth.
  • Wednesday, payroll processor ADP will release its monthly read on private-sector employment.
  • Thursday is the big day for the government's June employment situation report. Analysts expect it to show a solid 118,000 net jobs being added, and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%.
  • Of note: Other notable data releases include the Institute for Supply Management's monthly surveys for manufacturing, due out Wednesday.

    The bottom line: Buckle up for a short but eventful week of economic news.