Exclusive: Prediction markets get their own media company

Exclusive: Prediction markets get their own media company

A new media company called Eventual is launching in partnership with Polymarket to give the world's top prediction market traders a platform for news and analysis.

Why it matters: Just as FiveThirtyEight turned polling into a new way to understand politics, Eventual believes prediction market data can be used to analyze everything from elections to the economy.

  • "Prediction markets have gotten it right when pollsters, pundits and so-called experts got it wrong, over and over," said Eventual seed investor Richard Greenfield, a general partner at LightShed Ventures.
  • "The traders making those calls are a new type of expert class and are among the sharpest forecasters in the world, but they've been hiding in Discord servers and niche corners of the internet. Eventual makes them the centerpiece of a new kind of media business."

    • State of play: The startup, founded by former prediction market blogger turned podcast producer and writer Alex Keeney, has raised a modest seed round with participation from LightShed Ventures, Riverside Ventures, Juniper Ventures and BDG Media founder Bryan Goldberg, per Keeney.

  • Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction market companies, is Eventual's launch sponsor and exclusive data partner.

    • Between the lines: The company plans to sell ads and sponsorships against the brand's content on its own channels and social media.

  • It currently publishes a twice-weekly live video show hosted by Keeney featuring top prediction market traders alongside founders, investors, policymakers and journalists. Eventually, Keeney hopes to expand to a daily cadence.
  • Eventual publishes a paid and free Substack newsletter, as well as daily articles on its website, which is powered by Substack.
  • In the future, Keeney hopes to roll out subscription products for enterprise customers, such as a data and analytics suite.

    • Zoom in: Eventual has brought on some of the world's most prominent prediction market traders to write content and co-host podcasts, including Domer, Caleb Davies, Brian Golden and Paul Krishnamurty.

  • Additional contributors include PolyTraderPro founder Doug Campbell, U.K. journalist and author William Kedjanyi, and prediction market regulatory analyst Mick Bransfield.
  • Pratik Chougule, executive director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, will serve as managing editor of the site's written content.

    • The big picture: While prediction markets have exploded into the mainstream over the past two years, traders themselves remain largely anonymous and the industry still faces regulatory scrutiny.

  • "Prediction markets are a powerful tool for understanding our future. But they need skilled humans to translate their insights," Keeney said in a statement.