Team Trump fears a Nancy Mace governorship

President Trump's allies are growing alarmed that GOP Rep. Nancy Mace — who infuriated him by calling for the release of the Epstein files — will defy expectations and win the South Carolina governor's race.

Why it matters: Mace, who's running in a fiercely competitive June 9 primary, has been a thorn in Trump's side, most recently with her criticism of the administration's handling of the Iran war. She also threatened to side with Democrats on a war powers resolution.

People close to the president don't want Mace as governor — a perch that could help sway the 2028 presidential primary given the state's early spot on the voting calendar.

State of play: Polls consistently show Mace near or at the top of the Republican primary field. If no one receives a majority of the vote in the June 9 primary, the nomination will be determined in a two-week runoff pitting the top two finishers.

A recent survey conducted by the GOP firm co/efficient had Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette leading with 19 percent, followed by Mace with 18, Attorney General Alan Wilson at 15 and Rep. Ralph Norman at 13.

One possibility alarming the president's allies: That Mace and Rep. Ralph Norman advance to a runoff. Norman crossed Trump during the 2024 primary when he endorsed former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and called for "new leadership" in the party.

But Trump has yet to endorse a rival of Mace or Norman — recognizing he needs their votes to pass legislation in the House.

What they're saying: "Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman sabotaged Trump when it mattered most. Their reward shouldn't be the governor's mansion," a source close to the White House tells Axios.

The intrigue: South Carolina Republicans are watching closely to see if Trump endorses. His support could swing the race.

Evette is the candidate best positioned to get Trump's nod, operatives say. She raised more than $1 million for Trump's 2024 bid, and several members of the president's political team are advising her campaign.

Evette is endorsed by Gov. Henry McMaster, a Trump ally who's lobbied the president to back her.

But Trump is treading carefully. Aside from alienating Mace and Norman — whose votes the razor-thin House GOP majority needs to pass legislation — endorsing Evette could antagonize South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson, the father of Alan Wilson.

Yes, but: Some South Carolina GOP strategists are skeptical Mace and Norman will both advance to the runoff.

Behind the scenes: Mace has bewildered White House aides by repeatedly asking for Trump's endorsement despite her stands on the Epstein files and the Iran war.

They note she's received nearly $500,000 in support from a super PAC aligned with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a frequent Trump critic.

They also point out that she co-signed a discharge petition with Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie — a vocal Trump critic whom the president is working to unseat — aimed at forcing the release of the Epstein files.

Mace rejected Trump's overtures to remove her name from the petition.

"Nancy has asked for an endorsement countless times, which is confusing considering she teamed up with Massie to launch a dishonest attack on the administration in regards to the Epstein case," says a Trump political operative.

The other side: "The only people worried about Nancy Mace becoming governor are the consultants planting this story because they know the Trump endorsement isn't coming for their candidate," a senior Mace adviser tells Axios.

While Mace has criticized Trump's handling of the Iran war, at other times she's praised him.

Norman's campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

The bottom line: Trump wants an ally in the South Carolina governorship, especially given the stakes of the 2028 primary. But deciding how or whether to weigh in isn't an easy calculation.