The 8 unresolved questions in Trump's Iran deal
The U.S.-Iran deal was signed electronically on Sunday by President Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, senior administration officials told reporters on Monday.
Why it matters: The deal is already testing whether Washington and Tehran can turn a battlefield pause into a broader settlement — starting with the Strait of Hormuz and then moving to the far thornier question of Iran's nuclear program.
State of play: A 60-day ceasefire extension is in effect, U.S. officials say, including in Lebanon. But the Strait of Hormuz is not expected to begin reopening until after a formal signing ceremony Friday in Geneva.
Vance, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Ghalibaf, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet Friday with Pakistani and Qatari mediators to discuss the next phase.U.S. officials say the full text of the memorandum of understanding will be released in the next 24–48 hours, though Trump said it might not be published until after it's signed.The big picture: Washington and Tehran are racing to shape the narrative around a deal that few people have actually read, but which markets, world leaders and ordinary citizens are already reacting to.
The U.S. says relief for Iran will be tied to performance. Iranian state media has described a more generous package.Shipping companies say they're waiting for clearer guarantees from Tehran before sending cargo through the Strait of Hormuz.Hawks in Washington and Israel are pressing the White House to explain exactly what Iran is getting — and what happens if nuclear talks fail.Breaking it down: Here are eight key questions that are still swirling around the deal.
The White House did not respond to the questions when asked by Axios.1. Is the deal actually in effect?
The MOU was signed electronically on Sunday, with a more formal signing ceremony to be held on Friday in Switzerland.
The 60-day extension of the ceasefire took immediate effect, but the strait is not yet fully open.While Trump announced the "immediate" lifting of the U.S. blockade and opening of the strait on Sunday, he later said it would open on Friday once the ceremony takes place.A U.S. defense official said the military was ordered to prepare to lift the blockade Friday.Trump claimed Monday that ships were already moving, though Iranian state media said the status of the strait was unchanged.2. Will the strait be truly open?
The U.S. side has consistently said the deal would open the strait without tolls or any other restrictions.
A regional diplomat involved in the mediation told Axios last week that the deal called for shipping volumes through the strait to return to prewar levels within 30 days. But Iranian officials have told state media the strait won't simply return to "pre-war status," and that Iran will retain some level of control.The Fars news agency reported that Iran had agreed not to impose tolls during the 60 days, but would begin charging safety and environmental fees after that.The intrigue: A senior administration official said there would be a "regional dialogue" on the future of the strait and how to ensure it will never be closed again.
State of play: Shipping companies are moving cautiously.
Maersk and others have said they're waiting for more clarity and guarantees of safety, and some analysts doubt volumes will actually return to the pre-war norm anytime soon.A senior administration official told reporters the U.S. expects volumes to increase significantly over the next two weeks, though probably not to return to normal."Some crews want to see a little bit more stability for the next couple of days, maybe the next couple of weeks," the official said.3. What does Iran get?
Both sides agree that Iran gets two big things: an end to the fighting and sanctions waivers to allow oil exports.
That alone would generate much-needed revenue for Tehran, but Iranian state media has claimed the government is also getting billions of dollars in frozen funds just for signing.A senior U.S. official adamantly denied that, saying Iran would only get access to those funds based on a "pay for performance model." The full economic benefits of the deal, the U.S. side says, depend on signing a more detailed nuclear accord.Some skeptics of the deal have raised concerns there might be side agreements that give Iran access to cash immediately, though the White House calls that "misinformation."Yes, but: The senior administration official said the U.S. was prepared to make some "small gestures" early in the process on frozen funds and sanctions relief if Iran made similar "gestures" reflecting their willingness to comply with the deal.
4. Do they agree on what's been agreed?
The U.S. and Iran are offering conflicting accounts of what the deal requires — and what each side gets in return.
That's in part because the negotiations were handled largely indirectly, through mediators, and the MOU is a broad political understanding rather than a detailed treaty.That could leave enough ambiguity for both sides to claim they got what they needed, even if they have different expectations about what happens next."I am somewhat concerned that Iran's view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a hawkish Trump ally.One of the senior administration officials claimed the discrepancies were actually due to Iran overselling the deal for domestic consumption.5. Will we see the text?
Much of this confusion could be cleared up if the parties or the mediators simply published the full text of the MOU.
In the Monday briefing, a senior administration official said that would happen in the next 24–48 hours. Trump said it might not happen until after Friday.6. Will Israel comply?
The agreement is receiving criticism from across the political spectrum in Israel, less than four months before an election. That's in part because it requires Israel to observe a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said Israel will not withdraw from the parts of southern Lebanon it occupies or give up its ability to respond to Hezbollah attacks. If Iran strikes Israel over the war in Lebanon, Katz said, Israel will hit Iran "with full force."A senior U.S. official said the deal does not require an Israeli withdrawal and would not create a "one-way ceasefire," meaning Israel could respond if Hezbollah attacks.But Israeli officials worry their freedom to operate in Lebanon will be sharply curtailed.After an Israeli strike in Beirut on Sunday nearly derailed the deal, Trump told Axios that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had "no fucking judgment."
Trump said Monday that he hopes to "solve" the situation in Lebanon and that "we'll have to have a little chat with Hezbollah about this."7. Will there ever be a nuclear deal?
The MOU is designed to launch 60 days of nuclear negotiations.
All of the nuclear elements of the deal are dependent on a much more technical final agreement, as is the bulk of the sanctions relief Iran hopes to receive.U.S. officials acknowledge it will be very difficult to achieve such a deal, given the mutual distrust and how difficult it was to get the much less detailed MOU.Witkoff and Kushner traveled to Oak Ridge, Tennessee, earlier this month to meet with nuclear experts who would play a role in such negotiations.What's next: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, one of the mediators, said there would be meetings "this week" to set the stage for nuclear negotiations.
8. Will the war resume without a nuclear deal?
U.S. officials say they will not withdraw the forces sent to the region unless there is a nuclear deal.
One official argued that the damage imposed on Iran increased the chances of a deal, and said Trump still has "tools in his arsenal" if diplomacy fails.Iranian officials, meanwhile, claim Trump was desperate to end the war and that Tehran now has the leverage.What to watch: "I think we'll know over the next two to three weeks whether those understandings will turn into an actual agreement," a senior administration official told reporters.
