Minnesota teens endure tough summer job market

Minnesota's teen unemployment rate has crept to its highest level in 12 years — a return to normal after a post-pandemic surge in hiring young workers — according to an Axios analysis of the latest U.S. Census data.

The big picture: The state's teens are enduring one of the toughest summer job markets in years, facing more competition for a dwindling number of open positions — especially in industries that typically hire teens for the summer.

One jobs firm projected this could be the nation's slowest summer for teen hiring since 1948, the Wall Street Journal reported.

State of play: The 12-month rolling average of Minnesota's teen unemployment rate rose to 13.7% in May, the most recent month for which data is available.

That's the highest the figure has climbed since 2014, and well beyond its COVID-recession-era spike to 13.1% in January 2021.

Data: U.S. Census Current Population Survey via IPUMS; Chart: Kyle Stokes/Axios

What they're saying: "[T]he labor market is weakening across the board. ... Teen labor force indicators are reflecting this overall weakening," analysts with the state's Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) wrote in a recent blog post.

Driving the trend: Employers face increasing headwinds from inflation and rising fuel costs, according to the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Many businesses are automating entry-level tasks such as taking orders, conducting inventory checks, and providing basic customer service, according to the report.

Case in point: The entertainment and leisure sector — which includes resorts, hotels, and theme parks that are among teens' biggest employers — was expected to fill 70% fewer jobs than last year, the firm projected.

In Minnesota, this sector may also be recovering after shedding jobs during Operation Metro Surge, DEED's Labor Market Information office research director Angelina Nguyen told Axios.

Plus: More adults are staying in the workforce longer, often competing with teens for the same part-time or seasonal roles.

Minnesota's overall unemployment rate (currently 4.4%) recently surpassed the national rate (4.3%) for the first time since 2007.

Yes, but: The higher unemployment rate may reflect Minnesota's teen job market "getting back to a more normal place," as DEED's Oriane Casale told MPR News.

After COVID's onset, teens took "a lot of the customer-facing jobs that adults were unwilling to take," Casale said — and the share of Minnesota teens working or looking for jobs rose to a 20-year high: nearly 67% in the summer of 2024, per Axios' analysis.

But fewer teens are in the labor market now, and Minnesota's teen unemployment rate is now closer to its 20-year average (~12%).

Go deeper: Advice for teen job-seekers and employers from DEED/CareerForce